Forwarding information from the Base Emergency Operations Center and National Weather Service on the current status and expected timeline of impacts from Hurricane Lowell.

The JBPHH Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is closely monitoring Hurricane Lowell in the Pacific Region with potential impacts to Oahu. No immediate operational changes are required at this time, JBPHH remains in TCCOR 5. Hurricane Lowell is south of the state and forecast to turn north Saturday. Track is trending farther east with each run, but for now remains centered west of Kauai County. Forecast is for Category 3 as it moves closest to Kauai County Monday afternoon/evening.

RISK:

• High Surf impacts:
  • Building southeast to south swells from Lowell could produce advisory/warning level surf –
    • For south facing shores over the next several days.
    • Swell becomes more southerly as Lowell moves west into Saturday.
  • East swells from Hurricane Karina expected Saturday into early next week, which will likely produce high end advisory/potential warning level surf along east facing shores.
  • The most impactful surf will be large south to southwest swell from Hurricane Lowell Monday, coinciding with monthly high tides. Extreme conditions possible for Kauai County and possibly Oahu for south and western exposures.
• Wind impacts: 
  • Strong/gusty trade winds through Sunday. Significant damaging winds possible across Kauai County Monday.
  • Through Sunday, gusts over 50 mph possible, especially over and downwind of terrain. Highest confidence over Maui and Big Island.
  • Winds Monday depend on exact track, with major hurricane force winds (>110 mph sustained with higher gusts) *possible* across Kauai County.
• Heavy Rain / Flash Flooding impacts:
  • Limited potential for flash flooding through Saturday. Flash flooding potential increases Sunday/Monday on all islands, depending on banding structure and exact track. Potential for significant flooding on Kauai County. Forward movement of Lowell forecast to increase significantly Monday, limiting time of potential extreme rainfall.
• Other considerations:
  • Karina forecast to move north of the state and weaken significantly.
  • Potential for interaction with Lowell as Karina dissipates.
  • Marie currently not forecast to be significant for Hawaii, but bears watching for late next week.

MITIGATION: Regardless of potential impacts, use it as a reminder to review your emergency plans and ensure your household is fully prepared: 

• Ensure your contact information in AtHoc is current. 
• Sign up for Alert! Mass warning notification system at: https://dod.alert.mil/ The transition period is 30SEPT2026.  
• Check your emergency kits and fill up on supplies: 14 days food, water, medication, batteries, etc. 
• Check in with family and friends: how you will get in contact and where you will go during an emergency or evacuation? 
• Know your zone: Check if you are in a flood-prone area or exposed to strong winds. 
• Prepare your home: Trim vulnerable tree branches, clean gutters, seal gaps, bring in loose outdoor items. 
• Check insurance policy and have information handy. 

HAZARD ZONES: The Honolulu Department of Emergency Management provides detailed mapping resources to identify localized tsunami evacuation zones, flood plains, and wildfire risk areas across Oahu: https://www.honolulu.gov/dem/oahu-hazard-explorer/ 

NOTES: These maps are for planning purposes only and does not display real-time hazard risk based on weather or other conditions.  

• For active weather or emergency notifications, please ensure your AtHoc and Alert! is current and visit weather.hnlalert.gov or alert.hnlalert.gov for live updates. 

AFTER THE STORM – KEY SAFETY REMINDERS: 

• Never touch downed power lines. Assume all lines are live. 
• Avoid floodwater – electrocution, contamination, and leptospirosis risk. 
• Generators: Use OUTDOORS only. Install carbon monoxide detectors. 
• Document damage with photos/videos for insurance/housing claims. 
• Watch for mold – dry out wet areas quickly in Hawaii’s humid climate. 
• Check on isolated neighbors, especially elderly or those with special needs.